Phew!!! What an election weekend!! What a result!! I am talking about Delhi and Chhattisgarh in particular. Till last minute no one had any idea how it will turn out. Let us analyse this trend and starting with these 4 states, let me make some predictions on how it will turn out in Lok Sabha elections. I am also relying on data from previous Lok Sabha election results and preceding state results.
Madhya Pradesh (29 Lok sabha seats): This is a very clear victory for Shivraj Chouhan. Though BJP can claim Modi effect, by and large, Mr. Chouhan has delivered Madhya Pradesh. In 2008 state elections BJP won 143 seats with 37% vote share. In 2009 Lok Sabha elections BJP got 16 out of 29 seats with 43% vote share. I am not able to get the vote share in 2013 elections, but BJP has won 165 seats, probably with more vote share than 2008 elections. If we go by previous trends BJP should comfortably win between 17-20 seats in MP. Congress will get anyway between 7-9 seats and remaining seats for other fringe players....
Madhya Pradesh (29 Lok sabha seats): This is a very clear victory for Shivraj Chouhan. Though BJP can claim Modi effect, by and large, Mr. Chouhan has delivered Madhya Pradesh. In 2008 state elections BJP won 143 seats with 37% vote share. In 2009 Lok Sabha elections BJP got 16 out of 29 seats with 43% vote share. I am not able to get the vote share in 2013 elections, but BJP has won 165 seats, probably with more vote share than 2008 elections. If we go by previous trends BJP should comfortably win between 17-20 seats in MP. Congress will get anyway between 7-9 seats and remaining seats for other fringe players....
